Testing earthquake prediction methods: TThe West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRVz5.8r
نویسنده
چکیده
Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered. D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
منابع مشابه
Comment on dTesting earthquake prediction methods: bThe West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV z5.8QT by V.G. Kossobokov
In his paper Kossobokov investigates the efficiency of our short-term forecast for two western Pacific regions. Although we agree with the basic results of his evaluation that the forecast statistics is much better than a random guess, we have reservations about his definition of earthquake prediction, some of his tests, and his interpretation of the test results. We distinguish between determi...
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